Courting the stans: India’s outreach to central Asia is vital to counter the China-Pakistan axis

India’s big push to boost its ties with all five central Asian nations – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – received another shot in the arm with the foreign ministers of these countries flying down to New Delhi to attend the third central Asia dialogue over the weekend. This comes on the heels of the announcement that the presidents of these nations will be chief guests at next month’s Republic Day celebrations. It is also noteworthy that the national security advisers of the five nations participated in the India-hosted regional security dialogue on Afghanistan in November. In fact, central Asian republics have been tracking closer to the Indian position on Afghanistan, opposing foreign interference and use of Afghan soil for terror activities. This is in stark contrast to Pakistan’s and China’s approach, which is betting solely on Taliban to stabilise Afghanistan.

While there is no denying that the Afghan situation has galvanised India’s latest outreach to central Asian republics, there is also much scope for independent cooperation in trade, energy and connectivity. Interestingly, during their visit, central Asian foreign ministers agreed that connectivity initiatives should be based on principles of transparency and respect for sovereignty – the formulation is used by India to oppose China’s opaque Belt and Road projects that have already seen countries fall into debt traps and sign away strategic assets. Against this backdrop, central Asian republics are looking to hedge against China’s massive presence in their countries. And India with its expertise in sectors such as IT, space and medicine offers the perfect fit.

In return, central Asian republics with their massive natural resources – from gas to uranium – can fuel India’s next phase of industrialisation. While the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project may be all but dead, efforts should redouble on linking Iran’s Chabahar port with the International North-South Transport Corridor. This will give India direct access to central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. Strategically countering the China-Pakistan axis requires India to start looking north.